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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Greenback grabbing again after FOMC

Friday 9 November 2018

Last night the US Federal Reserve FOMC left interest rates on hold as expected but paved the way for a hike in December as I suggested yesterday, with more to come in 2019. Cue some Greenback grabbing again and now we're seeing some risk-off sentiment as equity markets duly wobble again.

GBPUSD continues to fall and has now posted lows of 1.3011 after failing into 1.3150 again yesterday.Risk-off GBPJPY selling and some EURGBP dip demand below 0.8700 both helping to push the pair later. Immediate sell interest now around 1.3030 then then 1.3050-60, 1.3080 and 1.3100 with decent demand still around 1.3000 then  1.2980, 1.2950, 1.2930 and 1.2900. I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips, a strategy that continues to work well

EURGBP had a look at the 0.8680 support (GBPEUR up to 1.1506) but has found that dip demand again to post 0.8715 this morning. Some buyers again now around 0.8700 then 0.8680 still and 0.8750 with sellers still poised around 0.8720 0.8750, 0.8780-85 and 0.8800. A raft of UK data out at 09.30 GMT including first readings of Q3 GDP which will have the algos on hot coals so be ready with your plan of action to take full advantage.

EURUSD has continued its journey lower too and now posted lows of 1.1332 this morning helped by EURJPY supply and the general US$ demand. Some immediate bids/support at 1.1330 with large options expiring today between 1.1340-50 and the barrier option defence of 1.1300 then 1.1280 and 1.1260. Sellers between 1.1365-75 with large options rolling off today in play then larger option interest at 1.1400, 1.1425 with offers at 1.1450 again then 1.1480 and 1.1500 where huge option interest rolls off today too. Given the current price action it seems difficult now to think that the 1.1400-25 area will be challenged but we rule nothing out.

USDJPY had a brief look above 114.00 post-FOMC but sellers were poised as I've been warning and coupled with the risk-off Yen demand we've seen a retreat to 113.77 so far. Immediate sell interest again around 114.00 with more between 114.20-30 and 114.50.Bids/demand still around 113.50 then 113.30 and 113.00 again. I remain a rally seller buying back in the dips.

USDCHF has also found support post-FOMC but tempered by the safe-haven Franc demand we've seen the cap at 1.0086 EURCHF sliding a little to 1.1419.Bids/support still at 1.1400 and 1.1380 with sellers poised at 1.1450 and 1.1480-00 still. USDCHF bids now at 1.0060, 1.0030, 1.0000 and 0.9980 still with sellers again poised between 1.0080-1.0100 then 1.0130. Still happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment but preferring the dip buys.

AUDUSD has turned lower on the USD demand and AUDJPY supply and after failing into 0.7300 again has now posted lows of 0.7235 but remains supported in the dips  with large options expiring today at 0.7270 remaining in play.Immediate bids/support still at 0.7230 then 0.7200 where even larger option expiry interest lurks today.  Sellers now poised at 0.7270 then 0.7300 and 0.7320. USDCAD has duly rallied to post 1.3194 post-FOMC and with oil prices slipping back. Bids now around 1.3160 then 1.3130-40 and 1.3100 with sellers poised around 1.3200 then  1.3220 and 1.3250 still.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Tomorrow the mighty Shrimpers of Southend begin this year's FA Cup journey at the hallowed Hall hoping to last a bit longer than in recent times. Bring on Wembley!!

Hats off to England's cricketers who have put themselves in a strong position in the First Test v Sri Lanka.

Have a great week-end out there one and all but do take time to remember the fallen in all wars. Lest we forget........

Interbank Rate 08.09 GMT GBPUSD   1.3017 EURUSD   1.1341 EURGBP   0.8712 GBPEUR   1.1477 USDJPY   113.84 USDCAD   1.3187 USDCHF   1.0078 GBPAUD   1.7967 GBPCAD   1.7170 GBPCHF   1.3124 GBPHKD   10.0921 EURHKD   8.7933

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