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  • Mike Paterson

US Dollar still in favour overall as Ukraine continues to dominate headlnes

Monday 14 March 2022

It's still a case of many unknowns re Ukraine with peace talks suggesting some positives while Putin continues to target new areas further West and that's not good. Meanwhile markets and traders have the US Fed and BOE this week on Wednesday and Thursday to keep in mind with many analysts still seeing rate hikes to combat inflation but to a lesser degree of 0.25% amid the Ukraine uncertainty.

Eequity markets remain underpinned while gold and oil remain in retreat but equally we can expect to finding dip demand too as the uncertainty continues. Now $1964 from $1991 and $106.10 from $111.30 as we start the week. Forex pairs continue their fragile range trading price action but the Greenback continues to remain in favour.

GBPUSD: Finding a cap at 1.3060 after duly holding the big 1.3000 and some pips banked. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Decent support now at 0.8380 again after a hold of 0.8360 and testing the key 0.8420-25 area helping to cap GBPUSD.GBPJPY: Bouncing from 153.20-50 amid renewed JPY supply on the better risk tones and now testing that 154.00 resistance while the jury remains out.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0900 and now 1.0950 as the rally continues with USD supply as I've been typing this morning. Options at 1.1000 should we head higher. USDJPY: 117.50 now supporting and we're testing 118.00 amid the general USD demand and JPY supply double whammy. EURJPY: Support now at 128.50 with failure into 129.60 so far in the latest rally in these ever fickle times but underpinned with core pairs finding dip demand.USDCHF: Now holding 0.9320 in the latest retreat after testing 0.960 with EURCHF support into 1.020-20 again after a hold of 1.1080 with SNB shadow lurking amid the fragile backdrop. EURCHF: Support now at 1.0200-20 again with SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers poised still though.

AUDUSD: Holding 0.7240 the latest retreat as I type after failure at 0.7300 amid the firmer USD tones and commodity ccy demand. USDCAD: Capping at 1.2800 again amid the commodityu ccy demand now but holding 1.2750 again now too amid the falling oil price. Two-way business expected amid all the uncertainty still.Caution required though with so many variables.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.55 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3055

EURUSD 1.0971

EURGBP 0.8402

GBPEUR 1.1900

GBPJPY 153.82

GBPCAD 1.6653

GBPCHF 1.2186

GBPZAR 19.6420

GBPHKD 10.1735

USDJPY 117.82

EURJPY 129.25

EURCHF 1.0237

EURHKD 8.5492

AUDUSD 0.7257

USDCAD 1.2746

USDCHF 0.9334

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