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  • Mike Paterson

US Fed in focus still

Wednesday 26 September 2018


Another up n down day yesterday amid ongoing trade war concerns but the main market focus remains expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve this evening. As ever markets will be as interested in what the rhetoric tells us about the pace of future hikes, and with the hawks prevailing for the moment the risk is still to the downside therefore.

GBPUSD held support around 1.3130 and eventually took out the 1.3150-60 sell interest to rally further and test larger offers into 1.3200 before retreating. Sellers still poised there then 1.3220, 1.3235 and 1.3250 with the topside line in the sand still between 1.3280-1.3300 with a barrier option in place now at the upper end. Immediate demand now between 1.3150-60 then 1.3130 still with more into 1.3100 then 1.3080 and into the key 1.3050 support line. I remain a GBP rally seller.

EURGBP failed at 0.8975-80 and has dipped below the support lines around 0.8930 as GBPUSD rallied and has posted lows of 0.8918 ( GBPEUR up to 1.1214) before running into fresh demand as GBPUSD fails at 1.3200 and expectation of the usual month-end buying from the Bundesbank . Sellers now poised around 0.8950 then 0.8965, with the larger interest at 0.8980 and 0.9000 still then 0.9030 and 0.9050. I remain a dip buyer.

EURUSD failed around 1.1800 yet again and fell back to look at 1.1750 support amid general US$ demand.Immediate bids at 1.1750 with a decent line in the sand still at 1.1720 then more at 1.1700, 1.1680 and 1.1660. Sellers poised around 1.1780 again then 1.1800, 1.1820-30 and 1.1850.

USDJPY is still making its mind up but remains underpinned as we head into the FOMC. The pair has tested 113.00 again but equally buy interest at 112.70.Sell interest around 113.00 again and 113.20 ahead of barrier option defence at 113.50 and 114.00. Bids at 112.70, 112.50, 112.30 and 112.00 still. USDCHF is also treading water as we wait on FOMC clues later but still underpinned helped by EURCHF support above 1.1330. Bids still at 0.9630, 0.9600 and 0.9575-80 with sell interest still into 0.9680 and 0.9700. EURCHF has bids now at 1.1320, 1.1300 at 1.1280 with sellers between 1.1380-1.1400.

AUDUSD has failed above 0.7280 again but also remains tightly bound.Sellers still around 0.7280 again and 0.7300 with immediate demand building into 0.7220 and 0.7200 still. USDCAD is making its mind up still amid the FOMC anticipation and ongoing NAFTA talks. Sellers still around the pivotal 1.2980 area and 1.3000 then 1.3030 with buyers initially now at 1.2930, 1.2900 with larger interest into the decent line at 1.2880.

Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing, so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.

Have a good day out there one and all.

Interbank Rate 08.13 BST GBPUSD   1.3178 EURUSD   1.1770 EURGBP   0.8931 GBPEUR   1.1197 USDJPY   112.82 USDCAD   1.2953 USDCHF   0.9648 GBPAUD   1.8148 GBPCAD   1.7068 GBPCHF   1.2712 GBPZAR   18.8285 GBPHKD   10.2169 EURHKD   9.1247

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