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  • Mike Paterson

Variable risk sentiment providing good opportunities

Wednesday 7 July 2021

Yesterday saw a reality check in equity markets and that brought the risk-off Yen demand that I regularly/always position for and I hope the steer has helped again with some decent retreats in cross and core pairs. US treasury yields dropping also notable.

Markets a little steadier since but risk remains fragile and FX rallies have been weak so far per my earlier tweet. US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes out later at 18.00 GMT may cause some algo-led volatility if anything new that we don't know already but many football fans, including me, will have eyes firmly on the Euros prize.Either way, always worth leaving a few orders to capitalise on any decent moves.

USD/forex jury remains out still. Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly.

GBPUSD: 1.3820 support finally broke amid the GBPJPY supply before finding the bids into 1.3780 a step too far as risk sentiment firmed.Some pips banked in the retreat per my tweets. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: Duly finding buyers into 0.8530 including me per my tweet but sellers still into 0.8580 now as we continue to range.GBPJPY: Softer risk sentiment providing Yen demand again and testing 152.30 after capping around 153.50. Rally sellers poised still when momentum fades.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.

EURUSD: Broke and then capped at 1.1840-50 to test 1.1800-10 amid the EURJPY and EURCHF supply but bouncing a little this morning as markets steady.USDJPY: A good cap at 110.80 now and some re-sells duly placed again part hedged vs GBPUSD whch proved correct again as GBPJPY fell. Decent bids at 110.30 helping to hold amid better risk tones as equities steadied.

EURJPY: Bids at 131.25-30 broken amid the risk-off selling but a good hold of 130.50. Rally sellers popised still.

USDCHF: Underpinned at 0.9220 now but sellers poised at 0.9260 as EURUSD finds 1.1800-10 support and with the SNB ever vigilant as EURCHF sinks back a little further. EURCHF: Holding 1.0900 now in latest retreat with SNB shadow/help ever present but rally sellers also poised still.

AUDUSD: A solid retreat from 0.7550 helped by the AUDJPY selling into good support at 0.7480 .Options interest at 0.7500 today in play and should provide some support.USDCAD: Strong support area now at 1.2350 helped as oil prices fell further and CADJPY selling notable again. 1.2480-00 decent sell interest.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Come on England !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Interbank rates: 08.34 BST

GBPUSD 1.3796

EURUSD 1.1820

EURGBP 0.8566

GBPEUR 1.1674

GBPCAD 1.7178

GBPJPY 152.65

GBPZAR 19.7784

GBPHKD 10.6969

USDJPY 110.67

USDZAR 14.3553

EURJPY 130.74

EURCHF 1.0914

EURHKD 9.1623

AUDUSD 0.7502

USDCAD 1.2452

USDCHF 0.9237

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