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  • Writer's pictureMike Paterson

Variable risk sentiment still prevailing

Friday 17 September 2021

Tight ranges on cross and core pairs still in these ever fickle financial and forex markets but seeing a little better risk tones as Europe gets underway and notable CHF weakness since yesterday's update. Some other USD demand in general too after some positive US data.

UK Retail Sales data appeared soggy earlier but there are so many unknowns and mitigating circumstances in these COVID times that it's difficult/futile to make any real analysis. Still keep an eye also on fallout from the US/UK/Australia nuclear submarine deal. Eurozone CPI data for August out at 09.00 GMT.

As we continue to range remember that patience and discipline in trading are key as ever, and not being greedy.

GBPUSD: Good two-way business to be had again whatever your bias this time between 1.3765-3825 with a move lower on firmer USD and EURGBP tones. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: A solid hold of 0.8500 but still failing to break back up through 0.8550. The latest retreat once again helping to underpin GBPUSD but all relative and fickle in these tight markets. GBPJPY: That old 150.80 support line I mentioned yesterday has duly held and now back up through 151.60 resistance on firmer risk tones. Sellers still poised when risk sentiment fades.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: 1.1750 provided a solid line of support yesterday.Good size option interest today at 1.1800 in play.

USDJPY: 109.20-30 support held yesterday and then 109.60 in the retreat from 109.80. Testing 110.00 again as I type. EURJPY: Rallying again and now at 129.55 amid the generally firmer EUR and risk tones.Sellers poised 129.60-80.

USDCHF: Notable CHF selling in the past 24 hours amid firmer USD and risk tones and with the SNB ever vigiliant and EURCHF undderpinned in the dips. 0.9260 seems the latest support line in the sand. EURCHF: 1.0860 duly held and then 1.0880 and now 1.0900 providing a line in the sand with SNB shadow ever present. Dip buying still the preferred trade but not greedy in the rallies.

AUDUSD: 0.7300-10 broke amid the firmer USD tones but the next line at 0.7275-80 held the retreat and now bsck up to 0.7317 helped by risk-on AUDJPY demand and large option interest at 0.7300 and 0.7325 today. No coincidence. USDCAD: Good support still coming in at 1.2620 after the retreat from 1.2700 amid the firmer risk/oil price tones and hence CADJPY demand. Option interest nearby in play.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.30 BST

GBPUSD 1.3802

EURUSD 1.1780

EURGBP 0.8534

GBPEUR 1.1716

GBPJPY 151.66

GBPCAD 1.7443

GBPHKD 10.7502

GBPZAR 20.1486

USDJPY 109.88

EURJPY 129.44

EURCHF 1.0914

EURHKD 9.1756

AUDUSD 0.7315

USDCAD 1.2647

USDCHF 0.9265

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