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  • Mike Paterson

Variable risk tones to greet a new week

Monday 12 July

Equity and commodity markets continued to recover a little poise on Friday with US Treasury yields firming too as I ghighl;ighted here and that gave JPY pairs and the core components a decent lift but rally sellers prevailing overall amid the fragile conditions. So far in Asia and Europe the mixed bag continues as early-week sparring/apathy plays out.

ECB's De Guindos at 09.00 GMT and Fed's Williams at 13.30 today's CB speakers.

Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy as we continue to range tightly overall but good to see some greater levels of volatility return.

GBPUSD: 1.3820 resistance broken in Friday's rally, then 1.3850-60 amid the GBPJPY demand and triggering stops along the way but finally capped above 1.3900 in Asia as EURGBP held 0.8530 and GBPJPY began retreating per my earlier tweet. I remain a rally seller but still expecting dip demand. Keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.EURGBP: A decent retreat on Friday amid the GBP demand but another hold of the strong 0.8530-35 support area but rally sellers poised still as we rally to 0.8565. GBPJPY: Good two-way business amid the variable risk tones.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. Risk to the downside though still overall.

EURUSD: A good hold of 1.1830 this time before a rally to 1.1880 and still ranging in that mix as I type. USDJPY: Another good cap at the pivotal 110.20-30 area but holding 110.00 as I type as some USD demand appears.

EURJPY: 130.60 now a decent support line but rally sellers poised still.USDCHF: CHF pairs lively amid the varible risk tones and the SNB ever vigilant. Decent support line at 0.9130 as I type but good two-way business expected still.EURCHF: That support line forming still at 1.0830 which I highlighted on Friday here with SNB shadow/help ever present but rally sellers also poised still.

AUDUSD: A retreat from 0.7500 and re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy but 0.7450 holding this time and pips duly banked. AUDJPY moves definitely having an impact.USDCAD: Strong support area now at 1.2450 amid softer oil price, firmer USD and CADJPY selling but 1.2520-25 presenting a good cap now where we also have options in play today as I warned on Friday.

So near yet so far as England's penalty curse became our undoing yet again but to be honest we didn't play well enough in the 120+ minutes prior. Italy's game management much better than ours and all their players turned up for the big occasion which some of ours didn't. Hopefully we can get over the line next time.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.

Interbank rates: 08.40 BST

GBPUSD 1.3871

EURUSD 1.1878

EURGBP 0.8562

GBPEUR 1.1678

GBPCAD 1.7307

GBPJPY 152.64

GBPZAR 19.8786

GBPHKD 10.7534

USDJPY 110.02

USDZAR 14.3440

EURJPY 130.67

EURCHF 1.0850

EURHKD 9.2083

AUDUSD 0.7467

USDCAD 1.2474

USDCHF 0.9136

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