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  • Mike Paterson

What a difference a day makes

Wednesday 15 September 2021

Wobbly risk sentiment has returned amid the latest US CPI data released yesterday and we've seen renewed JPY and CHF demand that's now capping core pairs in these ever fickle Forex markets. Suits my core positions/strategy but we're still ranging tightly in real terms.


UK inflation data earlier gave the hawks plenty to justify tapering/rate hikes with two now getting factored in for 2022 and we've seen some GBP demand but government ministers, and no doubt BOE talking heads, still talking "temporary". Only time will tell but the conjecture on CB stance/reaction globally remains a key market focus. Talk of a UK government re-shuffle today again doing the rounds and in the mix for GBP but not a prime mover.


As we continue to range remember that patience and discipline in trading are key as ever, and not being greedy.


GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3915-20 yesterday and we've since been back down to test 1.3800 amid the GBPJPY risk-off selling. Some demand this morning on the stronger inflation data. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. nEURGBP: Found support at 0.8510 again after once more failing to break back up through 0.8550 but a decent rally since to 0.8560 amid the GBPJPY selling. Now in retreat again as GBP finds a few buyers post-CPI data. GBPJPY: Support now at 151.20-30 after yesterday's tumble from 152.60. Sellers still poised when risk sentiment


I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.


EURUSD: 1.1800 still providing good support again after failing into 1.1850 woith cross flows still making an impact. USDJPY: That ever-tighter range now broken to the downside amid the risk-off JPY demand but 109.30 still provides decent support with larger into 109.00. EURJPY: Rallies capped at 130.20 amid the gnerally soggy EUR tones and JPY demand but finding support now at 129.20 although sellers remain poised. USDCHF: 0.9180 still providing support with the SNB ever vigiliant as EURCHF retreats amid the softer risk and sellers still poised. EURCHF: Holding 1.0850 in the retreat now with SNB shadow ever present. Dip buying still the preferred trade but not greedy in the rallies.


AUDUSD: Holding 0.7300 in Asia after failing at 0.7360 yesterday amid the risk-off AUDJPY selling. USDCAD: Good support coming in at 1.2600 yesterday helped by the softer risk tones and CADJPY selling but capped above 1.2700 as oil prices bounce off their lows.


Sadly last night saw new lows for my beloved Southend United as we lost at home to bottom club Aldershot. Sad times.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates: 08.47 BST

GBPUSD 1.3827

EURUSD 1.1815

EURGBP 0.8546

GBPEUR 1.1701

GBPJPY 151.32

GBPCAD 1.7541

GBPZAR 19.7444

GBPHKD 10.7712

USDJPY 109.45

EURJPY 129.31

EURCHF 1.0860

EURHKD 9.2062

AUDUSD 0.7320

USDCAD 1.2686

USDCHF 0.9191



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