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  • Mike Paterson

Wobbly risk overall as the second-guessing continues

Monday 19 December 2022

We've seen recovery in equity markets this morning but the global landscape remains fragile overall. Gold and oil finding support in the dips. China's COVID relaxtion measures still have the jury out and geopolitical risk in Ukraine still lurking too.

JPY pairs gapped lower in Asia on reports from Kyodo news that the Japanese government and BOJ will indeed revise its 2013 joint statement that set out to achiev 2~% inflation at the earliest date possible. The Pound looks soggy again on the crosses albeit off its 1.2100 lows again.

Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels.

GBPUSD: A good hold of 1.2100 again then up to test 1.2250 before capping. Good two-way business whatever your bias. I remain poised to re=sell. EURGBP: Support line now at 0.8700 and underpinned since the hawkish ECB tones on Thursday.Good two-way action though with sellers into 0.8750.GBPJPY: A cap on Friday at 167.50 then 166.50 but decent demand/support into 165.00. I would still expect two-way business as markets and sentiment remain ever-fickle.

EURUSD: A decent hold at the 1.0580 line but capping at 1.0660 as the USD jury remains out. USDJPY: A good base at 135.75 again but equally struggling to get back up through 136.50 Pips duly banked and some re-sells made. I expect more two-way business and I prefer the rally-sell side still. EURJPY: Capping at 145.00 again for the moment after the hold of 144.00-30 amid the variable risk and USD impact. Expect more two-way as markets second-guess. USDCHF: Capping into 0.9350 after Friday's rally but holding 0.9280 so far with some EURCHF dip demand still helping to support again but CHF demand to continue overall.

EURCHF: A hold at 0.9870 this time but capping around 0.9910 and we continue to range. Good two-way pips still.

AUDUSD: Good support around 0.6675 after the extended retreat and some good two-way pips whatever your bias. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side/strategy. GBPAUD trading 1.8100-1.8200 now in the latest tight range as core pairs make their mind up. NZDUSD capped into 0.6410-20 after the hold of 0.6375. GBPNZD capping into 1.9150 now amid the softer GBP tones but some decent bids now holding 1.900-50 as both core pairs continue to range. USDCAD: Capping around 1.3700 but holding the decent 1.3620-30 line again. Expect more two-way business overall as oil and USD markets remain ever-fickle.

Let's continue to be careful out there. Have a good week.

Interbank rates: 08.53 GMT

GBPUSD 1.2210

EURUSD 1.0640

EURGBP 0.8713

GBPEUR 1.1474

GBPJPY 166.07

GBPCAD 1.6642

GBPCHF 1.1360

GBPZAR 21.0450

GBPHKD 9.5116

USDJPY 136.00

EURJPY 144.74

EURCHF 0.9887

EURHKD 8.2897

AUDUSD 0.6725

NZDUSD 0.6400

USDCAD 1.3635

USDCHF 0.9286

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