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  • Mike Paterson

Wobbly risk sentiment again

Monday 21 September 2020

The increasing reality of fresh COVID cases and the generally fragile global scene are once again creating some risk-off sentiment as another week gets underway.


Regular readers will know I've been warning of this fragility for a long while and my ongoing preference to trade from that side, including my USDJPY rally-sell strategy and vulnerable GBP view. I hope the steer has helped but it hasn't needed rocket science or indeed scientists of any nature to confirm worst fears that the world is not in a great place.


GBPUSD continues to find sell interest at 1.3000 and this morning we're seeing some accelerated sell pressure to test 1.2850 amid some EURGBP demand and GBPJPY supply as markets anticipate further/increased COVID measures in the UK along with the ongoing Brexit deal concerns.EURGBP has found support at 0.9120 and 0.9150 as GBP weakens and now breaking up through 0.9180 resistance.GBPJPY has retreated steadily from 136.00 amid the softer risk tones and further through 135.00 this morning to test 134.00.


I stay poised to sell GBP rallies as my preferred side and buy back in the dips as ever.  Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. I still see dip demand though with markets still in a state of uncertainty overall.


USDJPY continues to retreat and now posting 6-month lows of 104.07. EURJPY capped at 124.00 and now fallen back through the decent support between at 123.00 on its own accelerated retreat amid the fragile risk. EURUSD rallied to test 1.1880 again amid the softer Greenback tones but since falling back amid some EURJPY supply as we continue to range. USDCHF capped at 0.9120 this time around as EURUSD rallied but since holding 0.9080 on the rereverse move this morning but rallies tempered by the risk-off CHF demand.


AUDUSD is now testing support at 0.7280 again after capping at 0.7320-30 amid the softer risk tones/AUDJPY supply. USDCAD currently on the rise again helped by softer oil and risk-off CADJPY demand but still ranging 1.3150-1.3250.


Markets are ever-fickle so don't forget to contact me if there's areas that you might need some further help with.


Meanwhile the not so mighty Shrimpers continue to struggle both on and off the pitch and now in rock-bottom position propping up the other 91 clubs. Worrying times but bigger concerns out there than football right now.


Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.


Interbank rates:  09.20 BST

GBPUSD   1.2855

EURUSD   1.1815

EURGBP   0.9193

GBPEUR   1.0880

GBPAUD   1.7657

GBPCAD   1.6997

GBPJPY   133.75

GBPZAR   21.2348

GBPHKD   9.9665

USDJPY   104.05

USDZAR   16.5198

EURJPY   123.03

EURCHF   1.0771

EURHKD   9.1603

AUDUSD   0.7282

USDCAD   1.3225

USDCHF   0.9115


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