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  • Mike Paterson

Wobbly risk sentiment returns

Tuesday 18 January 2022

Yes folks, what goes up generally comes down too as markets continue to remain ever-fickle.Equity markets are having another retreat this morning as US bond yields head higher and underpinning the Greenback. Oil prices are off their highs after WTI posted levels not seen since 2014.

Latest BOJ decision/rhetoric out earlier sprang no real surprises and we're seeing some more JPY supply amid the fragile risk sentiment and USDJPY failure above 115.00.

As always, don't over-analyze or second-guess but keep your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify recent ranges to see whether we hold or break and what levels present value for money. Patience will invariably be a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn.

GBPUSD: 1.3650-60 support now broken in latest retreat and becomes immediate resistance as we post fresh recent lows of 1.3620.EURGBP: Still ranging tightly with 0.8345-50 support (GBPEUR resistance 1.1977) now underpinning but equally still failing around 0.8360-70 (GBPEUR support 1.1950). Should continue to see good two-way buiness. GBPJPY: 156.50 support now broken amid the risk-off tones after failure into 157.00 helped by USDJPY capping at 115.00 too.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.

EURUSD: 1.1400 support broken after capping at 1.1420-25 amid the firmer USD, softer risk EURJPY supply and EURGBP capping again for the moment. I prefer to sell rallies overall still but keeping an eye on cross flow impact and risk sentiment as always.USDJPY: A good hold of 114.50 and decent rally but failing at 115.50 sees another test of 114.50 in the retreat.

EURJPY: 130.40 support now providing a line again after failure at 131.20. USDCHF: 0.9130 now provding support helped by stronger USD tones and with SNB ever vigilant but failing above 0.9160 as EURCHF remains around recent lows. EURCHF: SNB ever vigilant and holding 1.0420 but failing ainto 1.0450 still amid the softer risk CHF demand.

AUDUSD: Yesterday I highlighted offers building into 0.7230 and 0.7250 and we've now seen a solid retreat on firmer USD and AUDJPY selling double whammy but holding 0.7180 for the moment. USDCAD: 1.2480-85 support now and rallying to 1.2525 helped by firmer USD and oil prices off their highs after a failure into 1.2540.

Offers: 1.2535, 1.2550, 1.2565, 1.2580, 1.2600,1.2625, 1.2650

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.40 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3637

EURUSD 1.1392

EURGBP 0.8353

GBPEUR 1.1972

GBPJPY 156.36

GBPCAD 1.7080

GBPCHF 1.2466

GBPZAR 21.0770

GBPHKD 10.6232

USDJPY 114.69

EURJPY 130.62

EURCHF 1.0423

EURHKD 8.8734

AUDUSD 0.7189

USDCAD 1.2509

USDCHF 0.9150

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