Wobbly risk tones greet another week.
Monday 24 January 2022
Another week opens up with markets going through another reality check on the fragile world in which we live. Ever-growing concerns over Russia invading Ukraine and markets still second-guessing central banks, not least of which the Fed who give us their latest verdict on Wednesday, has led to another wobble in risk sentiment. In the UK there's another tough week ahead for PM Johnson.
I've warned repeatedly that we live in uncertain times on many level and my strategy of selling rallies on a risk-off strategy but being patient for decent entry levels has once again proved prudent so I hope it's helped steer you..
As always, don't over-analyze or second-guess but keep your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs and identify recent ranges to see whether we hold or break and what levels present value for money. Patience will invariably be a virtue but don't confuse patience with being stubborn either in entry or exit.
GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3580 now as the retreat continues to test 1.3530. EURGBP: 0.8350 now providing support (GBPEUR sellers 1.1970) on the risk-off EUR demand and helping to cap GBPUSD but sellers lurking still. GBPJPY: Recent 154.40 support now resistance on the latest risk-off retreat and helping my core shorts.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever. These markets are ever-fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: Finding sellers at previous support line of 1.1360 now as we test the strong 1.1300-20 area again amid cross flow impact and risk sentiment as always. USDJPY: 114.00 now resistance amid risk -off JHPY demand but holding 113.50 for the moment.EURJPY: 128.50 still the support line after the fall back through 129.00 but still the usual stand-off as we see both risk-off EUR and JPY demand. USDCHF: 0.9110 support now gone after a failure at 0.9140 with SNB ever vigilant amid the general CHF demand which is kicking EURCHF lower still, bucking the EUR trend elsewhere. EURCHF: SNB ever vigilant as the slide resumes to look at 1.0320 after the failure at 1.0350-60 with CHF demand outstripping EUR buying elsewhere.
AUDUSD: Back down through 0.7180 on the risk-off retreat after failing into 0.7220 on Friday. USDCAD: 1.2540 now support and testing 1.2600 amid softer risk/oil CAD supply. Sellers lurking 1.2620-30.
A glorious and well deserved third league win on the bounce for the mighty Shrimpers of Southend on Friday night at the hallowed Hall. Two more big games this week starting tomorrow at Aldershot. Bring it on !
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.50 GMT