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  • Mike Paterson

Wobbly risk tones return

Tuesday 15 March 2022

European equity markets seeing some advers risk sentiment again this morning with the Ukraine crisis ongoing and srikes on Kyiv.The US Fed and BOE this week on Wednesday and Thursday casting a shadow too with many analysts still seeing rate hikes to combat inflation but to a lesser degree of 0.25% amid the uncertainty.

Gold and oil remain in retreat seemingly finding little dip demand that I expected as the uncertainty continues. Now $1931 from $1956 and $99.25 from $105.30. Forex pairs continue their fragile range trading price action but the Greenback losing a little favour with JPY and CHF demand returning.

For new and older subscribers alike I will repeat my view that it's still a case of not over-analysing amid all the noise but keeping your focus on price action in core and cross-pairs. I can't tell you what's going to happen next but continue to identify ranges and what levels present value for money. Algos will continue to knee-jerk price action on the variable headlines. Discipline is key in these whippy markets. If in doubt, stay out or at the very least keep positions trimmed/manageable.

GBPUSD: Finding a base again at 1.3000 but duly capping at 1.3050-60 too. I remain a rally seller overall. EURGBP: Decent support now at 0.8400 and breakng up through the key 0.8420-25 area to test 0.8450 and helping to cap GBPUSD.GBPJPY: Retreating from 154.50 this morning amid the softer risk toned but bouncing from 153.20 so far while the jury remains out.

I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs overall as my preferred trading side but being patient as ever.

EURUSD: Holding 1.0960 but failing at the key 1.1020-30 area. Options at 1.0934-45 to support should we head lower in the retreat. USDJPY: 117.70 now supporting after capping into 118.50 and somne pips banked amid the general USD supply and JPY demand double whammy. EURJPY: Support now at 129.20 with failure into 130.00 so far in these ever fickle times. USDCHF: Now holding 0.9370 in the latest retreat after testing 0.9400-10 with EURCHF support again after a hold of 1.0260 with SNB shadow lurking amid the fragile backdrop. EURCHF: Support now at 1.0300 again with SNB lurking in the dips. Rally sellers poised still though.

AUDUSD: Holding 0.7160-70 the latest retreat after failure at 0.7200-20 amid the softer risk tones and some over-done commodity demand being unwound. USDCAD: Holding 1.2820 and rallying to 1.2880 on the lower oil/CADJPY selling double whammy. Two-way business expected amid all the uncertainty still.Caution required though with so many variables. Options in play today.

Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

Interbank rates: 08.55 GMT

GBPUSD 1.3055

EURUSD 1.0971

EURGBP 0.8402

GBPEUR 1.1900

GBPJPY 153.82

GBPCAD 1.6626

GBPCHF 1.2240

GBPZAR 19.7310

GBPHKD 10.1660

USDJPY 117.82

EURJPY 129.25

EURCHF 1.0237

EURHKD 8.5428

AUDUSD 0.7257

USDCAD 1.2746

USDCHF 0.9334

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