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  • Mike Paterson

Yes folks, it's still looking very fragile out there

Tuesday 18 June 2019

Ongoing uncertainty ahead of the US FOMC making their latest interest rate announcement tomorrow coupled with increasing tensions in, among others, the Middle East and Hong Kong means we have the on-going risk-off sentiment prevailing. No surprise to my readers hopefully.


GBPUSD has fallen further to post lows of 1.2512 helped by some more GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply and the on-going political risk as the Tory Party leadership contest continues.EURGBP has broken higher again (GBPEUR down to 1.1140) amid the GBP selling and EURUSD contained by large option expiry interest. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing as risk-off sentiment continues and I hope that's also provided you all with a good steer.


I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout as I've been warning about for many many months.


EURUSD has large option expiry interest at 1.1200 again with more between 1.1240-50 and that's keeping the pair contained amid the EURJPY supply/EURCHF dip demand. NB. Euro falling as I type amid Draghi comments from a conference where BOE's Carney also speaking.


USDJPY failed around 108.70 yet again helped by renewed Yen demand and has retreated to test support at 108.15-20 with larger at 108.00 still.USDCHF also failed around it's own cap of 1.0000 but still tightly bound overall as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand. EURCHF support at 1.1180 being absorbed atm as the Euro retreats on those Draghi comments.


AUDUSD is still finding sellers on the bleaker domestic outlook and rate cut scenarios along with some good AUDJPY risk-off supply yet again while USDCAD remains underpinned as oil prices range for the moment combined with some good CADJPY selling again but failing to make any real progress as markets fear the FOMC tomorrow.


Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.


Have a good day out there one and all.


Interbank Rate 08.23 BST

GBPUSD   1.2539

EURUSD   1.1238

EURGBP   0.8961

GBPEUR   1.1157

GBPAUD   1.8347

GBPCAD   1.6823

GBPZAR   18.4874

GBPHKD   9.7145

USDJPY   108.26

USDZAR   14.7576

EURJPY   121.68

EURCHF   1.1201

EURHKD   7.8042

GBPJPY   135.77

AUDUSD   0.6837

USDCAD   1.3414

USDCHF   0.9966


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